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Thursday, 26 May 2011

Yemen, Libya and Middle East unrest - live updates

Yemen, Libya and Middle East unrest - live updates


Yemen - US orders diplomats to leave
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh issued messages of defiance as intense battles raged in the heart of the capital for a third day. Photograph: Muhammed al-Sayaghi/AP
10.01am: What's going to happen next in Sana'a? Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen analyst from Princeton University, gives his take in a post on his Waq al-Waq blog:

My suspicion is that Saleh's planning is to defeat the al-Ahmar family decisively - his troops got beat early - hope to maintain [Major General] Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar's neutrality, and then when the dust settles call for new elections.

What would happen in such a scenario?
Could the US really walk back its call for Saleh to step down if he or a family member won such a presidential race? Would it want to? Think what Yemen would look like, certainly not what it looks like now.
What if the al-Ahmar family defeated Saleh, and if it goes on long enough at its current trajectory they very well might. Does the US want to trade one family's rule in Yemen for another? The protesters certainly don't want to, many of them distrust the family.
What can be done: at the moment, not much. Hopefully that will change in the future.
The UN Secretary General called for an immediate cease fire. Probably more out of habit than the hope that it will make any difference on the ground. Yemen is in for a rough road.
9.38am: Syrian dissidents and opposition groups are to gather in Turkey next week to plot the overthrow of President Assad's regime and set up a transitional council to represent the Syrian revolution on the international stage.
Leading US-based dissident Ammar Abdulhamid will be attending the three days of talks in the city of Antalya. Writing on his blog, he says:
This will be a major test for the Syrian opposition groups and their ability to remain relevant to the current goings-on in the country. Success will be premised on their ability to court the support of protest leaders and committees acting inside the country.
Should they fail to do so, it will be to their detriment, rather than that of the Revolution.
This is the dawn of a new age in Syrian politics, it's not only the regime that's being rejected, but traditional politics based on personalities and ideologies rather than issues and platforms.
Opposition groups and figures still have a chance to reinvent themselves, while the Assads and their establishment do not. I think the activists amongst [us] understand that, but let's see if the traditional opposition figures have managed to do so as well.
As such, the conference comes as referendum on the opposition's ability to rejuvenate itself and rise to the challenges at hand, it's not an indicator of where the revolution is going. The revolution has only one way to go: forward until the Regime is toppled. Its ability to do so might be hampered somewhat by the inability of the opposition to play a positive role, but the overall progress made and the course itself will not be reversed.
9.25am: The Guardian's Tom Finn filmed this footage from inside the compound of Sadeq Al-Ahmar as his Hashid tribe continued to fight with government troops.
It shows the destruction caused after the government shelled it on Tuesday night. Gunfire can be heard in the background as the stand off continues. The film also shows injured tribesman being treated in a makeshift field hospital.
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In an update on the latest fighting Tom writes:
I'm still hearing shelling now after more than 12 hours of continuous fighting in Sana'a.
The local hospitals are filled with the injured, a doctorr said that 26 tribesmen were killed last night, mostly from sniper fire.
The opposition television station Suhail TV is no longer broadcasting after its main office was shelled last night by government troops.
Lots of Yemenis are leaving the capital in cars and buses with luggage piled up on the roof. The airport is still open.
8.56am: The fighting in Yemen appears to have escalated overnight.
There are reports that the headquarters of an opposition TV station has been destroyed.
The Yemen Post reports:

The Saleh government succeeded in hitting the opposition TV channel (Suhail) with RPG's late last night ending its feeds. The channel is currently out of service in Sana'a.

This is a big blow to the tribes of Ahmar, as the channel was owned by Hameed al-Ahmar, the brother of Hashed's tribal leader.
It also reports that more than 50 people were killed in clashes overnight.
Reuters is reporting a similar death toll.
Dozens of Yemenis were killed in overnight fighting in the capital, a government official said on Thursday as fighting aimed at toppling President Ali Abdullah Saleh threatened to ignite civil war.
Witnesses said separately that the compound of a tribal leader who is a major force in the fighting was severely damaged in the latest round of clashes that started on Monday and have already left scores dead.
8.10am: Welcome to Middle East Live. Yemen and Libya look set to be the main focal points today as fighting continues to rage in the Yemeni capital Sana'a and reports claim that Tripoli is preparing to offer a ceasefire.
The violence in Sana'a has forced the US to order out its diplomats.
In a statement the US state department warned:
The security threat level in Yemen is extremely high due to terrorist activities and civil unrest. There is ongoing civil unrest throughout the country and large-scale protests in major cities. Violent clashes are taking place in Sana'a, and may escalate without notice. Even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence. US citizens are urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of a demonstration.
Is the Libyan government preparing to sue for peace? The Independent's lead story says:
The Libyan regime is preparing to make a fresh overture to the international community, offering concessions designed to end the bloodshed of the three-month-long civil war.
The Independent has obtained a copy of a letter from the country's Prime Minister, Al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi, being sent to a number of foreign governments. It proposes an immediate ceasefire to be monitored by the United Nations and the African Union, unconditional talks with the opposition, amnesty for both sides in the conflict, and the drafting of a new constitution.
Meanwhile, the Telegraph reports that Gaddafi might step down as military and diplomatic pressure on Tripoli intensifies.
Khaled Kaim, deputy foreign minister, for the first time admitted that all political options were on the table in future negotiations over the country's future.
"This is for the Libyan people to decide," he told The Daily Telegraph.
Here's a round up of the main developments:

 

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